Aiming at the operational concept of penetrating counterair of the U.S. Air Force， in order to meet the requirements of target analysis of anti penetrating counterair operation， a threat assessment method for penetrating counterair operational aircraft is proposed. According to the characteristics of penetrating counterair operation， the aircraft threat assessment indicators is set up， and a threat assessment indicator system for penetrating counterair operational aircraft is built； based on the analytic hierarchy process， the penetrating counterair operational aircraft threat assessment model is established and the threat ranking of penetrating counterair operational aircraft is obtained. The effectiveness and rationality of the proposed threat assessment method are verified by case calculation， which can provide a basis for target analysis and strategy research of anti penetration counterair operation.

It is difficult to predict the combat intention of an air-defense target. Hence， an intention recognition method based on the dynamic Bayesian network and template matching is proposed to predict the combat intention of air-defense targets. Specifically， target feature information based on real-time perception， domain expert knowledge， and accumulated historical combat situation data are used for the reasoning of current combat operations of an air-defense target by the dynamic Bayesian network. Then， a possible sequence of operations is predicted according to the current combat operations of the target. On this basis， the combat intention of the target is predicted by the situation template matching method. The simulation shows that the proposed method can effectively predict the intention of the air-defense target and obtain a higher recognition rate.

The effectiveness evaluation of emergency repair on equipment plays an important role in repair force construction and repair decision-making.Aiming at the uncertainty and randomness of qualitative index quantification,based on the uncertainty quantification method and cloud model,an effectiveness evaluation model of emergency repair on equipment is proposed.The feasibility of the model is verified through an example.Based on the evaluation results,the advantages and disadvantages of the repair capacity building are analyzed,and the methods to strengthen the emergency repair efficiency are presented. The evaluation model provides method basis and technical support for comprehensively improving the building capacity of the emergency repair.